Early systolic blood pressure changes in incident hemodialysis patients are associated with mortality in the first year.

BACKGROUND In incident hemodialysis (HD) patients, the relationship between early systolic blood pressure (SBP) dynamics and mortality is unknown. METHODS Baseline SBP levels were stratified into 5 categories ranging from <120 and ≥180 mm Hg. Early pre-HD SBP change was defined as the slope of pre-HD SBP from week 1 to 12 and categorized in quartiles (Q1, lowest slope). SBP slopes were computed for each patient by simple linear regression. RESULTS In 3,446 incident HD patients (42% females, 44% black, age 62 ± 15 years), the median pre-HD SBP slope was -1.7 (Q1) to +2.3 (Q4) mm Hg/week. In an adjusted multivariate Cox regression analysis, patients with declining SBP (slope Q1) had higher mortality compared to patients with increasing pre-HD SBP (slope Q4) at 12 months (hazard ratio 2.01, 95% confidence interval 1.35-3.01). In addition, patients with baseline pre-HD SBP <120 mm Hg showed higher mortality compared to the reference group (SBP ≥180 mm Hg) at 12 months (hazard ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.03-3.45). CONCLUSION Baseline pre-HD SBP and early SBP dynamics are associated with mortality in the first year of dialysis. Patients who had low (pre-HD SBP <120 mm Hg) or declining SBP had the highest mortality rates. Particular attention is warranted in incident HD patients with low or declining SBP.